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  • Post Time Posted October 03, 2018
Even despite the massive amount of production power of Canada’s legal growers, experts are still expecting a shortage of marijuana in the first year of legalization. 

Rosalie Wyonch of the C.D. Howe Institute, a public policy think tank, analyzed the combined supply inventory numbers of Canada’s licensed producers, alongside demand forecasts from Statistics Canada and the Parliamentary Budget Officer. She also analyzed the demand patterns in Colorado and Washington post recreational legalization. 

After her research Wyonch concluded that we will not have enough to meet demand because “We didn't have enough producers far enough ahead from legalization that they'll actually be able to deliver enough product to market by the time legalization happens.” 
Accurate estimates of demand for cannabis are very difficult to estimate due to its nature of currently being a black market activity, but numbers have ranged from 400,000 to 500,000 kilograms from Canaccord Genuity, to 926,000 kilograms from Health Canada. According to the industry’s most recent official inventory report, the supply side shows 66,404 kilograms of dried cannabis for medical use on hand in the quarter that ended in June. Many of the producers also have stashes of dried cannabis awaiting for legalization, but those numbers are not public so the industry as a whole is unaware of what will be released. 

Because of the estimation differentials, it is expected that the black market will fill the gaps, but as the industry matures supply should catch up. 

Source: https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/legal-cannabis-shortage-looms-1.4845816


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